The Weather Authority: Warmer Tomorrow; Stormy Wednesday

RADAR CHECK: The most widespread rain across Alabama is now south and east of Montgomery, but more showers are moving into West Alabama from Mississippi.

There is also a huge thermal contrast across the state; North Alabama communities are in the cool 50s north of a warm front near U.S. 84… but south of that front, temperatures are up in the mid 70s at Mobile and Dothan. The warm front will be lifting northward tonight, and we will maintain the chance of a few passing rain showers.

TOMORROW: It will be warmer day with temperatures in the 70s statewide. There will be sufficient moisture and instability for scattered showers and thunderstorms, but with no real forcing mechanism nearby the rain won’t be especially widespread, and there is no significant risk of severe weather across Alabama. Pretty decent chance the sun will break out at times.

We note a significant severe weather event is possible tomorrow in the broad zone from Dallas to Cleveland; there is an “enhanced risk” of severe storms tomorrow and tomorrow night over parts of Arkansas, Missouri, and Illinois.

SEVERE STORMS IN ALABAMA WEDNESDAY: A cold front will approach with good support from an upper trough, and strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in Alabama. SPC maintains an “enhanced risk” of severe storms for much of North/Central Alabama… the standard “slight risk” is up as far south as Grove Hill, Greenville, and Eufaula, and a “marginal risk” extends down into far South Alabama.

TIMING: Storms should move into Northwest Alabama by late morning, then reaching Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden between 2 and 6 p.m. Then, the storms move down toward Montgomery and Auburn after 6:00 p.m.

THREATS: Forecast wind profiles suggest the primary threat will come from damaging winds along the squall line ahead of the front. Hail is also possible with the stronger storms. And, we can’t rule out an isolated tornado or two, especially in storms that form ahead of the line…

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