Still hot for most of Friday

A cold front will deliver cooler, drier air to New Jersey starting Friday afternoon, along with a chance for spot showers and thunderstorms.

Friday is changeover day, starting hot but ending with cooler temps. (Map: College of DuPage Meteorology)

On Thursday, Mother Nature smashed Newark’s record high temperature as the thermometer rose to 94 degrees. The heat continues for most of Friday, but big changes are ahead just in time for the weekend.

For this edition of the weather blog, I want to try something a little different. I was chatting with someone yesterday about my method of “interrogating the forecast” – in other words, guiding my daily weather analysis by asking important questions and researching the answers. (Basically following the scientific method we all learned about in elementary school.)

So I’m structuring this post in a similar fashion, giving you a behind-the-scenes look of how I build your New Jersey weather forecast. Hopefully the layout of this post helps you understand the latest forecast and why I wrote it this way. Hopefully. Let me know what you think!

First step, the recent past… What’s been going on this week?

The past two days have featured record-breaking temperatures, mostly in the 90s. That’s an impressive 20 degrees above normal for mid-May. High humidity, poor air quality, and high pollen levels have made the hot weather even more unbearable.

My high temperature forecast for Thursday was 93 at Newark, 92 at Trenton, and 90 at Atlantic City. I was within a degree at each climate site, with actual highs of 94 at Newark, 92 at Trenton, and 91 at Atlantic City. Good! That means my thinking and the forecast models seem to be handling the magnitude of the heat very well.

Second step, right now… What’s going on?

Due to continued high humidity, Friday morning temperatures are once again in the 70s. Gross. Meanwhile, scattered clouds have filtered into the skies of Jersey overnight. Thursday…

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